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  • 1. Grudd, Håkan
    et al.
    Briffa, K.R.
    Karlén, W.
    Bartholin, T.S.
    Jones, P.D.
    Kromer, B.
    A 7400-year tree-ring chronology in northern Swedish Lapland: natural climatic variability expressed on annual to millennial timescales.2002Ingår i: The Holocene, ISSN 0959-6836, E-ISSN 1477-0911, Vol. 12, nr 6, s. 657-665Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Tree-ring widths from 880 living, dry dead, and subfossil northern Swedish pines (Pinus syl vestris L.) have been assembled into a continuous and precisely dated chronology (the Torneträsk chronology) covering the period 5407 BC to ad 1997. Biological trends in the data were removed with autoregressive standardization (ARS) to emphasize year-to-year variability, and with regional curve stan dardization (RCS) to emphasize variability on timescales from decades to centuries. The strong association with summer mean temperature (June–August) has enabled the production of a temperature reconstruction for the last 7400 years, providing information on natural summer-temperature variability on timescales from years to centuries. Numerous cold episodes, comparable in severity and duration to the severe summers of the seventeenth century, are shown throughout the last seven millennia. Particularly severe conditions suggested between 600 and 1 BC correspond to a known period of glacier expansion. The relatively warm conditions of the late twentieth century do not exceed those reconstructed for several earlier time intervals, although replication is relatively poor and confidence in the reconstructions is correspondingly reduced in the pre-Christian period, particularly around 3000, 1600 and 330 bc. Despite the use of the RCS approach in chronology construction, the 7400-year chronology does not express the full range of millennial-timescale temperature change in northern Sweden.

  • 2. Treydte, Kerstin
    et al.
    Liu, Laibao
    Padrón, Ryan S.
    Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet
    Babst, Flurin
    Frank, David C.
    Gessler, Arthur
    Kahmen, Ansgar
    Poulter, Benjamin
    Seneviratne, Sonia I.
    Stegehuis, Annemiek I.
    Wilson, Rob
    Andreu-Hayles, Laia
    Bale, Roderick
    Bednarz, Zdzislaw
    Boettger, Tatjana
    Berninger, Frank
    Büntgen, Ulf
    Daux, Valerie
    Dorado-Liñán, Isabel
    Esper, Jan
    Friedrich, Michael
    Gagen, Mary
    Grabner, Michael
    Grudd, Håkan
    Gunnarsson, Björn E.
    Gutiérrez, Emilia
    Hafner, Polona
    Haupt, Marika
    Hilasvuori, Emmi
    Heinrich, Ingo
    Helle, Gerhard
    Jalkanen, Risto
    Jungner, Högne
    Kalela-Brundin, Maarit
    Kessler, Andreas
    Kirchhefer, Andreas
    Klesse, Stephan
    Krapiec, Marek
    Levanič, Tom
    Leuenberger, Markus
    Linderholm, Hans W.
    McCarroll, Danny
    Masson-Delmotte, Valérie
    Pawelczyk, Slawomira
    Pazdur, Anna
    Planells, Octavi
    Pukiene, Rutile
    Rinne-Garmston, Katja T.
    Robertson, Iain
    Saracino, Antonio
    Saurer, Matthias
    Schleser, Gerhard H.
    Seftigen, Kristina
    Siegwolf, Rolf T. W.
    Sonninen, Eloni
    Stievenard, Michel
    Szychowska-Krapiec, Elzbieta
    Szymaszek, Malgorzata
    Todaro, Luigi
    Waterhouse, John S.
    Weigl-Kuska, Martin
    Weigt, Rosemarie B.
    Wimmer, Rupert
    Woodley, Ewan J.
    Vitas, Adomas
    Young, Giles
    Loader, Neil J.
    Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years2024Ingår i: Nature Geoscience, ISSN 1752-0894, E-ISSN 1752-0908, Vol. 17, nr 1, s. 58-65Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The vapor pressure deficit reflects the difference between how much moisture the atmosphere could and actually does hold, a factor that fundamentally affects evapotranspiration, ecosystem functioning, and vegetation carbon uptake. Its spatial variability and long-term trends under natural versus human-influenced climate are poorly known despite being essential for predicting future effects on natural ecosystems and human societies such as crop yield, wildfires, and health. Here we combine regionally distinct reconstructions of pre-industrial summer vapor pressure deficit variability from Europe’s largest oxygen-isotope network of tree-ring cellulose with observational records and Earth system model simulations with and without human forcing included. We demonstrate that an intensification of atmospheric drying during the recent decades across different European target regions is unprecedented in a pre-industrial context and that it is attributed to human influence with more than 98% probability. The magnitude of this trend is largest in Western and Central Europe, the Alps and Pyrenees region, and the smallest in southern Fennoscandia. In view of the extreme drought and compound events of the recent years, further atmospheric drying poses an enhanced risk to vegetation, specifically in the densely populated areas of the European temperate lowlands.

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