Global statistical maps of extreme-event magnetic observatory 1 min first differences in horizontal intensity
Swedish Polar Research Secretariat, Abisko Scientific Research Station2016 (English)In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 43, no 9, 4126-4135 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Analysis is made of the long-term statistics of three different measures of ground level, storm time geomagnetic activity: instantaneous 1 min first differences in horizontal intensity ΔBh, the root-mean-square of 10 consecutive 1 min differences S, and the ramp change R over 10 min. Geomagnetic latitude maps of the cumulative exceedances of these three quantities are constructed, giving the threshold (nT/min) for which activity within a 24 h period can be expected to occur once per year, decade, and century. Specifically, at geomagnetic 55°, we estimate once-per-century ΔBh, S, and R exceedances and a site-to-site, proportional, 1 standard deviation range [1 σ, lower and upper] to be, respectively, 1000, [690, 1450]; 500, [350, 720]; and 200, [140, 280] nT/min. At 40°, we estimate once-per-century ΔBh, S, and R exceedances and 1 σ values to be 200, [140, 290]; 100, [70, 140]; and 40, [30, 60] nT/min.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 43, no 9, 4126-4135 p.
Rapid time variations, Magnetic storms and substorms, Probabilistic forecasting, Extreme events, Geomagnetically induced currents, geomagnetism, magnetic storms, natural hazards, space weather, extreme events, statistical maps
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:polar:diva-3512DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068664OAI: oai:DiVA.org:polar-3512DiVA: diva2:1083584