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Global statistical maps of extreme-event magnetic observatory 1 min first differences in horizontal intensity
Responsible organisation
2016 (English)In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 43, no 9, p. 4126-4135Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Analysis is made of the long-term statistics of three different measures of ground level, storm time geomagnetic activity: instantaneous 1 min first differences in horizontal intensity ΔBh, the root-mean-square of 10 consecutive 1 min differences S, and the ramp change R over 10 min. Geomagnetic latitude maps of the cumulative exceedances of these three quantities are constructed, giving the threshold (nT/min) for which activity within a 24 h period can be expected to occur once per year, decade, and century. Specifically, at geomagnetic 55°, we estimate once-per-century ΔBh, S, and R exceedances and a site-to-site, proportional, 1 standard deviation range [1 σ, lower and upper] to be, respectively, 1000, [690, 1450]; 500, [350, 720]; and 200, [140, 280] nT/min. At 40°, we estimate once-per-century ΔBh, S, and R exceedances and 1 σ values to be 200, [140, 290]; 100, [70, 140]; and 40, [30, 60] nT/min.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 43, no 9, p. 4126-4135
Keywords [en]
Rapid time variations, Magnetic storms and substorms, Probabilistic forecasting, Extreme events, Geomagnetically induced currents, geomagnetism, magnetic storms, natural hazards, space weather, extreme events, statistical maps
National Category
Natural Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:polar:diva-3512DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068664OAI: oai:DiVA.org:polar-3512DiVA, id: diva2:1083584
Note

2016GL068664

Available from: 2017-03-21 Created: 2017-03-21 Last updated: 2017-11-29

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Publisher's full texthttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068664
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